1. Introduction
The U.S.–Israel attack on Iran on February 28, 2026 triggered a rapid escalation across the Middle East, including retaliatory strikes, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to global energy flows. Japan, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil and LNG, is among the countries most exposed to this crisis.
According to CSIS, 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Japan imports 94% of its crude oil from the Middle East.
As tensions continue to rise, understanding the implications for Japan’s energy security, economy, and foreign policy has become critical.
2. Immediate Impacts on Japan: Energy, Shipping, and Costs
2.1 Oil Supply Disruption
Japan relies on imports for 85% of its total energy consumption, and the Middle East accounts for 94% of its crude oil imports, mainly from the UAE (43%) and Saudi Arabia (39%).
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Japan faces:
- Higher crude oil prices
- Increased shipping insurance costs
- Delays and rerouting of tankers
- Pressure on domestic refineries
Alliance News reports that prolonged disruption could push crude prices to $87 per barrel, reducing Japan’s GDP by 0.18% and increasing consumer prices by 0.3%.
2.2 LNG and LPG Stability (Relative Strength)
Japan has diversified LNG imports over the past decade:
- Middle East LNG dependence dropped from 29% (2013) to 11% (2025).
- Middle East LPG dependence is only 3%, with 90 days of reserves.
This means LNG/LPG supply is less vulnerable than crude oil.
2.3 Currency and Financial Market Volatility
Higher energy costs have weakened the Japanese yen, which recently approached 158–159 yen per USD, prompting concerns about potential government intervention. The Nikkei 225 also saw sharp declines as foreign investors turned into net sellers.
3. Security Implications for Japan
3.1 Maritime Security Risks
Iran has attacked dozens of vessels in the region, including at least 12 ships in one week in October. Japan-bound tankers face increased risk of:
- Missile strikes
- Drone attacks
- Naval harassment
- Mine explosions
Japan’s Foreign Minister has contacted Iran nine times since March to secure safe passage.
3.2 Japan’s Strategic Shift: POWERR GX
Japan is accelerating its energy-security reforms through the POWERR GX package, which includes:
- Diversifying crude oil sources
- Strengthening reserves
- Supporting alternative transport routes
- Expanding nuclear power
- Enhancing shipping insurance frameworks
This marks a shift toward greater autonomy in Japan’s security posture.
4. Long-Term Implications for Japan
4.1 Energy Policy Transformation
Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern oil is now seen as a strategic vulnerability. Experts argue Japan must:
- Modify domestic refining facilities to handle non-Middle Eastern crude
- Expand nuclear and renewable energy
- Increase domestic resilience in power generation
4.2 Diplomatic and Security Pressure
The crisis tests Japan’s evolving security policy:
- Will Japan participate in coalition maritime security?
- How will Japan balance U.S. alliance obligations with regional diplomacy?
- Can Japan maintain stable energy imports without direct military involvement?
CSIS notes that this conflict may become a major test of Japan’s security reforms over the past decade.
5. Conclusion
The Iran conflict has immediate and far-reaching consequences for Japan:
- Energy supply risks due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
- Economic pressure from rising oil prices and a weakening yen
- Security challenges in maritime protection
- Long-term policy shifts toward diversification and resilience
Japan’s response—through diplomacy, energy diversification, and strategic reforms—will shape its economic stability and geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific for years to come.
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